NFL betting trends can be tricky. Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 54 but the 49ers to cover the spread …
Do not make any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and game-total Super Bowl trends.
1) Just Pick the Winner
Only six teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:
- Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
- Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
- Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
- 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7).
The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).
The Patriots added to this trend in 2019, winning Super Bowl 53 and covering the spread.
So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite to win, bet them against the spread. If you like the underdog, don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline.
2) Underdogs Are Barking
The five favorites to cover the spread in the last 16 Super Bowls include:
- Patriots in Super Bowl 53
- Patriots in Super Bowl 51
- Packers in Super Bowl 45
- Colts in Super Bowl 41
- Steelers in Super Bowl 40
The Niners have added to this trend, failing to cover the spread in Super Bowl 47 as 4.5-point favorites. But they’ll be on the other side of the line in Super Bowl 54, serving as underdogs to the Chiefs.
3) AFC West Goes Over
The last Super Bowl featuring an AFC West team went UNDER, when the Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5.
You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West reeled off eight straight OVERS. None of those teams were the Chiefs, however.
4) NFC West Teams Score in Super Bowls
The last five Super Bowls featuring NFC West teams include:
|Super Bowl||Matchup||Total||Points Scored||O/U Result|
|Super Bowl 53||New England vs Los Angeles Rams||56||16||UNDER|
|Super Bowl 49||New England vs Seattle||47.5||52||OVER|
|Super Bowl 48||Seattle vs Denver||47.5||51||OVER|
|Super Bowl 47||Baltimore vs San Francisco||48||65||OVER|
|Super Bowl 43||Pittsburgh vs Arizona||46||50||OVER|
The NFC West will once again be represented in 2020, as the San Francisco 49ers advanced to the Super Bowl.
5) Small Spread = Lots of Points
The eight Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:
|Super Bowl||Matchup||Spread||Total||Points Scored||O/U Result|
|Super Bowl 53||Philadelphia vs New England||NE -2.5||56||16||UNDER|
|Super Bowl 51||Atlanta vs New England||NE -3||57.5||62||OVER|
|Super Bowl 49||Seattle vs New England||SEA -1||47.5||52||OVER|
|Super Bowl 48||Seattle vs Denver||DEN -2||47.5||51||OVER|
|Super Bowl 46||New York Giants vs New England||NE -2.5||53||38||UNDER|
|Super Bowl 45||Green Bay vs Pittsburgh||GB -3||45||56||OVER|
|Super Bowl 35||Baltimore vs New York Giants||BAL -3||33||41||OVER|
|Super Bowl 22||Washington vs Denver||DEN -3||47||52||OVER|
With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.
The spread of the 2020 Super Bowl is anywhere from 1 to 2 points, depending where you look.
6) Underdogs Have Been Covering Small Spreads
Super Bowls 53 (Patriots cover against the Eagles as favorites) 49 (Patriots upset Seahawks), 48 (Seahawks upset Broncos), and 46 (Giants upset Patriots) were the last four Super Bowls with spreads less than three points.
Super Bowl 54’s spread will also likely remain under three points.
7) AFC Favorite = Low-Scoring
Super Bowls 53, 52, 51, 48, 46, 44, 43, 42, 41, 40, and 39 account for the last 11 times the AFC has served as the favorite. The game total only went OVER in 52, 51, 48, and 43.
The AFC (Kansas City Chiefs) is again favored in Super Bowl 54. It’s the franchise’s first time serving as the favorite in a Super Bowl.
8) Going Over on Fox
There have been a total of eight Super Bowls broadcast on Fox: 1997, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017.
But only the 1999, 2011, and 2014 Super Bowls did not include the Patriots. The total went over in all three of those games.
Super Bowl 54 will be broadcast on Fox and New England is not involved.
9) AFC Isn’t a Good Fox Favorite
In the last 15 years, Fox has broadcast the Super Bowl five times. The AFC has been favored in four of them, but the only game they covered as a favorite is the 2017 Super Bowl, where New England covered as 3-point favorites against Atlanta.
The AFC is again favored and the game will be broadcast on Fox in 2020.
10) NFC’s West is Best
The AFC West and NFC West have met in three Super Bowls: 2014 (Seattle vs Denver), 1995 (San Francisco vs San Diego), and 1990 (San Francisco vs Denver).
The NFC West is 3-0 against the spread in those games.
The two west divisions meet again in Super Bowl 54.