Before you make your final decision on betting either the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl 54, you’ll want to know these 15 mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl betting trends.
1) Lucky White Jerseys
The only two teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 15 years without wearing their white jerseys were the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45 and the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52.
The 49ers will be wearing their traditional white jerseys in Super Bowl 54, leaving the Chiefs in red.
2) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing
*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52; this is why there is a missing win/loss
The 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only two teams in the last 14 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.
San Francisco finished with a 13-3 record in 2019, while the Chiefs were 12-4.
3) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage
Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. The Chiefs are currently listed as slight favorites.
This trend has recently reversed, though …
4) Underdogs Have the Edge Recently
The New England Patriots are the only team who has won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last eight years – they did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.
5) Favorites Love Florida
Florida has hosted the Super Bowl 15 times before, with ten of those instances being in Miami, three in Tampa Bay, and one in Jacksonville.
In those 15 games, underdogs have only won four of them:
- Super Bowl 44 (Saints beat the Colts as 5-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 25 (Giants beat the Bills as 7-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 18 (Raiders beat Washington as 3-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 3 (Jets beat Colts as 18-point dogs)
Super Bowl 44 and 3 were the two played in Miami where dogs won.
6) Small Spreads Favor Underdogs
Here are the last four Super Bowls with a spread less than three:
- Super Bowl 49: SEA lost to NE as a 1-point favorite
- Super Bowl 48: DEN lost to SEA as a 2-point favorite
- Super Bowl 46: NE lost to NYG as a 2.5-point favorite
- Super Bowl 54: NE beat the Rams as 2.5-point favorites
You have to go back to Super Bowl 16 to find the previous spread less than 3 points.
The spread in Super Bowl 54 is hovering between KC -1 and KC -2, depending where you look.
7) AFC Loves the Sun
The last time the Super Bowl was played in Florida was 2010, where the Saints picked up a win for the NFC. But you’d have to go back to 1995 to find the last time the NFC won a Super Bowl in Florida, as the AFC reeled off five straight wins.
Florida is preparing to host the Super Bowl again in 2020.
8) Who Needs Experience?
The 49ers have far more Super Bowl experienced players than the Chiefs, outnumbering them 8-2.
San Francisco players who have played in a Super Bowl include:
- Jimmy Garoppolo (backed up Tom Brady twice)
- Tevin Coleman (Super Bowl 51)
- Ben Garland (SB 51)
- Robbie Gould (SB 41)
- Emmanuel Sanders (SB 50)
- Richard Sherman (SB 48 & 49)
- Joe Staley (SB 47)
- Levine Toilolo (SB 51)
Kansas City players who have played in a Super Bowl include:
- Terrell Suggs (SB 47)
- Stefan Wisniewski (SB 52)
9) Good Old February
Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.
Super Bowl 54 will take place February 2nd.
10) AFC West Means Upset
Here’s a look at the last five Super Bowls that have included a team from the AFC West:
- Super Bowl 50 (Broncos beat Panthers as 4.5-point dog)
- Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks beat Broncos as 2-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 37 (Bucs beat Raiders as 4-point dogs)
- Super Bowl 33 (Broncos beat Falcons as 7.5-point favorites)
- Super Bowl 32 (Broncos beat Packers as 11-point dogs)
The Chiefs belong to the AFC West and are currently listed as favorites in Super Bowl 54.
11) NFC Has the Better West
The 49ers are personally 2-0 against the AFC West, beating the Chargers in Super Bowl 29, and the Broncos in Super Bowl 24. Add in the Seahawks beating the Broncos in Super Bowl 48, and the AFC West has never beat the NFC West in a Super Bowl.
Super Bowl 54 sees the AFC West (Kansas City Chiefs) and NFC West (San Francisco 49ers) clash again.
12) Is the AFC the Stronger Conference?
The only NFC team to win a Super Bowl in the last seven years are the Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams.
13) AFC Believes Football Should Be Played Outdoors
Looking to the last ten Super Bowls that were played outdoors, the NFC has only won these three: Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks) in New Jersey, Super Bowl 44 (Saints) in Miami, and Super Bowl 37 (Buccaneers) in San Diego.
Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium is an outdoor venue.
14) 49ers Undefeated in Miami
The 49ers won Super Bowls 29 (over the Chargers) and 23 (over the Bengals), which were both held in Miami, Florida.
As previously mentioned, Miami will host Super Bowl 54.
15) NFC Shows Up on Fox
The Patriots, in Super Bowl 51, are the only AFC team to win the Super Bowl in the last four Fox broadcasts. Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks), Super Bowl 45 (Packers), and Super Bowl 42 (Giants) were all won by the NFC.
Super Bowl 54 will be broadcast by Fox.
Bonus Trend: AFC Likes the Voice of a Cowboy
It doesn’t go back very far, but it’s worth mentioning that the AFC has won the last two Super Bowls where a former Cowboy was in the broadcast booth – Super Bowl 53 (Tony Romo) and Super Bowl 51 (Troy Aikman).
Aikman is back to call Super Bowl 54. Fortunately for the NFC, the Pats were the team who won both of those Super Bowls, so maybe it’s just a New England thing.